Market Analysis: Lithium Battery Anode Material Market Supply-Demand Dynamics Expected to Improve, Prices May Rebound

As a core component of lithium batteries, anode materials perform the critical function of storing and releasing lithium ions. Global production capacity reached 3.546 million tons per year in 2024, surging 337% from 2020 (811,000 tons per year). China demonstrates absolute industrial dominance: its 2024 capacity grew 391% compared to 2020, accounting for a staggering 96% of global production (up 10.5 percentage points from 2020). This dominance stems primarily from its complete industrial chain support and technological cost advantages. Leading companies demonstrate robust performance: In the first half of 2025, Beryl's anode shipments exceeded 260,000 tons (up 32.83% year-on-year), while Shanshan Corporation's anode shipments accounted for 21% of the industry, further cementing China's pivotal role in the global lithium battery anode material supply chain.

II. Technological Path Differentiation: Graphite Dominance and Accelerated Commercialization of Silicon-Based Anodes
The current lithium battery anode material landscape exhibits a “graphite-dominated, silicon-based penetration” pattern (YH Report Network data):
Graphite Materials Dominate the Market: Artificial graphite, with its high packing density and superior cycling performance, holds an 87% market share and is widely used in power batteries; natural graphite accounts for 12%, primarily used in consumer batteries. In the first half of 2025, Shanshan Co. maintained its industry-leading position in artificial graphite production, achieving mass supply of its 6C ultra-fast charging power battery anodes.​

Silicon-Based Anodes Overcome Bottlenecks: Silicon-based anodes have surpassed 450 mAh/g energy density (expansion rate < 40%), with 2025 marking a critical commercialization milestone. BTR introduced the industry's first S+i graphite long-range solution, resolving lithium crosstalk and thermal stability issues while extending battery life by 20%. Shanshan's Ningbo silicon-based production base achieved mass shipments, with its high-silicon products gaining recognition from domestic and international clients. According to CITIC Securities projections, 2025 marks the first year of significant volume growth for silicon-carbon anodes. Current pricing at 400,000 yuan/ton is expected to drop below 200,000 yuan/ton with the adoption of 100kg equipment, significantly improving cost controllability.

III. Dual Demand Engines: Power Batteries and Energy Storage Batteries Drive Lithium Battery Anode Material Growth
Downstream applications of lithium battery anode materials span three major sectors: power batteries (supporting electric vehicles/power tools), energy storage batteries (serving power generation/grid/base stations), and consumer batteries (3C products/drones). China's shipment volume is projected to grow from 1.37 million tons in 2022 to 2.08 million tons in 2024, achieving a CAGR exceeding 22%. The demand side will see structural breakthroughs in 2025:
Steady expansion of power batteries: China's power battery shipments are projected to reach 935.2 GWh in 2025. Rising new energy vehicle penetration will drive demand for high-energy-density anodes, a trend confirmed by Bettery's 46.23% year-on-year growth in artificial graphite shipments.

Energy Storage Batteries Emerge as New Growth Engine: Energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 310 GWh by 2025. Data from Dongwu Securities indicates domestic energy storage cell prices have seen modest increases, while overseas markets (Europe/US) experience surging orders. Companies like Sungrow Power Supply report year-on-year order growth exceeding 50%, directly driving demand for ultra-long-life anode materials. Local governments like Zhoushan Dinghai District are supporting anode material projects through industrial funds (e.g., Zhejiang Zhecai Venture Capital Fund), further optimizing supply chain layouts.

IV. Supply-Demand Dynamics and Price Forecast: Gradual Recovery Starting in 2025
Lithium battery anode material prices will exhibit phased characteristics:
Short-term (2025-2027) moderate recovery: Price recovery will be limited due to competitive pressures from downstream battery manufacturers. However, price increases for energy storage cells and the premium for silicon-based anodes (BTR's silicon-based products achieve a gross margin of 22.6%) will provide support.

Medium-to-Long Term (2028-2029): Accelerated Growth
Following an industry adjustment period, supply-demand dynamics will significantly improve. The market will consolidate around high-quality products (e.g., fast-charging anodes, silicon-carbon composite anodes). . Combined with the 2025 target of 2.5 million tons of anode shipments (a 20% year-on-year increase), capacity expansions by leading companies (e.g., Beryl's 80,000-ton Phase II project in Indonesia and Shanshan's 100,000-ton project in Finland) will further optimize the supply structure, propelling market prices into an upward trajectory.